Risk & Diversification

The headlines have been dominated recently by the BP oil disaster in the Gulf of Mexico. This story and the dramatic effect it has had on the value of BP stock are yet another example of the risks inherent in investing. Considering these risks, why do people invest and how can one invest without exposing oneself to too many of these risks?

Many people consider large, established companies to be good investments. There are several reasons that this is true, but putting too much of ones investment portfolio into the stock or bonds of a single or small number of companies is still a risky proposition. BP and GM are dramatic, recent examples.

So how does one reduce the risks of investing in the "wrong" company? The simple answer is diversification. The common phrase used to define this term is "Don't Put All Your Eggs in One Basket." By owning stocks and bonds from a variety of companies, large and small, domestic and international, the risk of losing large amounts of wealth is reduced.

Some people have questioned the value of diversification because nearly every type of investment lost value during 2008. While this is true, a 40-year study that was presented at a recent financial planning conference showed that a year like 2008 was truly an anomaly. Diversification has provided significant protection in 38 of the last 40 years. Although disasters and market shifts will continue to pose risks for companies of all types, diversification is one way to have exposure to the upside of investing, without taking on too much risk.

New Opportunities

As someone who is interested in the automobile industry, I took special interest in the announcement today of a partnership between Tesla and Toyota. Tesla is a young, Silicon Valley start-up electric automobile manufacturer and Toyota is the large global auto giant that has gotten a bit of bad press recently. So what does this announcement have to do with investing?

Tesla has been producing a very expensive electric roadster that has sold well to those who can pay over $100,000 for a car. Tesla's next product is an electric sedan that should be affordable to more buyers at about $50,000. Toyota (along with most auto manufacturers) has experienced a slowdown the past couple years and recently closed a large auto factory in the San Francisco Bay Area, which was formerly a joint venture with General Motors.

Today's announcement was that Tesla would buy the closed factory from Toyota to manufacture its future products and learn from Toyota's expertise in manufacturing. Toyota announced that it would invest $50 million in Tesla to learn from some of its young, venture-like thinking and methodologies and jointly produce electric vehicles in the future.

In my opinion, this announcement is a great example of the transitions that happen in a free-market economy and the opportunities that news ways of thinking and doing things can provide. Tesla is focused on the future of automobiles, without being restricted by oil or labor unions. Toyota is looking to improve its image and rekindle some energy that large organizations tend to lose over time. A well structured investment portfolio can be designed to take advantage of these transitions and the opportunities they provide. Although an economic downturn causes a lot of pain and upheaval, it also opens new doors and allows new ways of thinking. As an investor, I like to look forward for the growth and changes that might be just around the corner.

Risk & Volatility

Anyone who follows the news headlines heard about the dramatic drop in the stock market yesterday. Although it was followed by a significant recovery, there was a point yesterday where the Dow Jones Industrial Average was down almost 1,000 points. What caused this to happen and what does it mean about the risk of investing in the stock market?

There is speculation about the exact cause of yesterday's volatility, but it was most likely caused by a combination of global economic uncertainty, computerized trading programs and human trading actions. All of these factors confirm that investing in equities does carry risk and this risk becomes more apparent when uncertainty exists. Our world economy has become more volatile and uncertain in recent times and the changes in the market show this.

Despite the volatility, developing a well-diversified, long-term investment portfolio is still the way to achieve returns that stay ahead of inflation and to build real wealth over a long period of time. Recent events confirm the need to have a well-thought-out financial plan and appropriate investments which support the risk this financial plan allows. Having a plan like this in place allows the short-term emotion of the markets to be viewed as "noise" and the long-term goals remain the primary concern.

Financial Lessons Learned

With another tax season behind us and some hopeful economic signs appearing on the horizon, I've taken an opportunity to reflect a bit on the past couple years. There are some lessons that have been learned or relearned by myself and many of you out there. If you haven't learned any lessons then this post might give you some more financial insight.

1. "Good Times" can't last forever. Although we are blessed as Americans to have a unique form of government that has fostered much success and prosperity throughout our history, we are still subject to the economic ups and downs of a free market economy. If anything, we are subject to these even more than some more socialist or heavily regulated economies.

2. Freedom isn't free. Somewhat related to my previous point, we have to pay a price for the "ups" in our economic cycles with the "downs" that inevitably follow. More government involvement in our economic lives my flatten these cycle out a bit, but the price of more government is less freedom.

3. There is a cost to everything. The recent downturn has brought out a sort of panic reaction which says we need to pull ourselves out of this downturn--quickly and at any cost. The cost of some of the recent government legislation is very significant. It might not be immediately apparent, but we are burdening our future generations with more taxes without giving them a say in the decision. There are also costs to the substandard moral behavior which brought on much of this crisis. The cost has been severe and not just to those who acted unethically.

4. Economic cycles are beneficial. Although this recent recession has caused much financial pain in many people's lives, changes are often made which will pay future dividends. Companies have improved processes and removed excess costs. Families have reevaluated purchasing decisions and paid down debt. Governments have been forced to provide services more efficiently or in a more need-based manner. Many of these changes will strengthen our country to allow for future growth cycles.

5. Despite the financial challenges, we should be grateful. We are blessed with families, friendships, freedoms and opportunities that many people in the world could never imagine. Let's not forget those things because of some short-term disappointments and surprises.

Emotional Buying

I recently attending a church fundraising auction which was an enormous success. Considering that $$ and purchases were involved, the evening gave me some food for thought about how people buy things. The auctioneer was very talented and humorous and made the evening enjoyable for everyone. His performance, along with the fact that the bidding got a bit competitive all led to the success of the evening. The upbeat emotions of the evening led people to have fun and spend money. I have been involved in several charity auctions and this is often the case.

So how does this relate to our everyday and not so routine purchasing decisions? We often head into a store to buy something and come out with something else or more than we intended to buy. Our mood and the presentation of the store affect our purchasing behavior. This might be common sense to most, but it is often forgotten, especially when larger purchases are involved.

As a financial planner and as a rational consumer, I try to have a plan in place before I am in a situation to spend money. This doesn't always work and isn't always necessary with small, insignificant purchases, but is recommended behavior for the big decisions in life. Next time you are choosing a home, car or large appliance, keep this in mind. I would also recommend a plan or a referral in choosing important services providers, like doctors, dentists, financial advisors and the like.

Are You Wealthy in More Ways Than One?

Wealth is often measured by money in the bank, real estate, cars or other material possessions. The traditional way to measure one's wealth or personal net worth is to add up all the assets, subtract the liabilities and the difference is the net wealth of an individual. Although I do these calculations as a professional, I also like to consider things like time commitments, stress levels and appropriateness of debt, among other things.

Have you ever considered if you are "time affluent" as the online columnist Laura Rowley has observed? Do you have all the time you desire to be with friends and family and enjoy the material possessions that you have acquired or do you find yourself spending all your time acquiring the material possessions?

Do you have unnecessary stress in your life? Is some of this stress related to financial decisions and burdens that may have been unintentionally placed upon yourself or your family? Do you make other poor decisions because of the stress that you are feeling?

Finally, are you comfortable with the amount of debt you have taken on? Have you ever considered the appropriateness of your debt? Even if you can afford the payments is debt always necessary to acquire what you really need in life?

I don't want to sound like a psychologist, since I'm not trained as one, but finance definitely involves more than a net worth statement or debits and credits. In addition to preparing professional financial statements and using institutional money management techniques, I like to assess how balanced people are in their lives and how financial decisions are adding to or detracting from ones total "wealth" in life. I think this is something we can do better with, especially as Americans in an economy that seems to be all about acquiring things.

What's Ahead for Taxes?

As tax time comes around, many people are wondering what the future holds for taxes in the United States. If President Obama gets what he wants, tax rates will go higher for higher-income Americans. His recently proposed budget has the Bush tax cuts going away at the end of 2010 for individuals making $200,000 or more and couples making $250,000 or more (sounds like a marriage penalty to me).

The budget proposes that the top two tax rates would go from 33 to 36 percent and 35 to 39.6 percent. Capital gains taxes are also proposed to go from 15 to 20 percent for this same group of high-income Americans. It is also expected that the estate tax will be reinstated retroactive to January 1st at a 45 percent rate.

No one likes to see tax rates increase, and these changes aren't a sure thing, but we do need some fiscal changes at the Federal level in order to protect the future generations in America. As opposed to playing political games with tax policy, I would prefer that the President and Congress enact fair tax policy for all Americans so we all have "some skin in the game," as opposed to deciding who is rich and who is poor and who should be rewarded or punished for his or her political leanings. I would also appreciate greater consideration of the spending side of the equation. Consistent, increased spending seems to be a given, despite the economic ups and downs that American households face. We would all be on a path to bankruptcy if we increased household spending year after year without considering where the income was coming from.

All this being said, these tax changes can be managed and muted somewhat by staying informed of what's ahead and working with a licensed financial professional, when needed. We should do our best as citizens to influence the policies in Washington and then stay informed to deal with the good or bad consequences of those decisions.